F.
The resurrection of the European constitution will be made more likely in 2007 because of what is happening in national capitals. The European Union is not really an autonomous organisation. If it functions, it is because the leaders of the big continental countries want it to, reckoning that an active European policy will help them get done what they want to do in their own countries.
G.
That did not happen in 2005-06. Defensive, cynical and self-destructive, the leaders of the three largest euro-zone countries—France, Italy and Germany—were stumbling towards their unlamented ends. They saw no reason to pursue any sort of European policy and the EU, as a result, barely functioned. But by the middle of 2007 all three will have gone, and this fact alone will transform the European political landscape.
H.
The upshot is that the politics of the three large continental countries, bureaucratic momentum and the economics of recovery will all be aligned to give a push towards integration in 2007. That does not mean the momentum will be irresistible or even popular. The British government, for one, will almost certainly not want to go with the flow, beginning yet another chapter in the long history of confrontation between Britain and the rest of Europe. More important, the voters will want a say. They rejected the constitution in 2005. It would be foolish to assume they will accept it after 2007 just as a result of an artful bit of tinkering.
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